Was it a mistake to encourage kids to learn to code? Should everyone who’s currently studying computer science or working as a programmer start learning to be an influencer, solar panel installer, or coal miner? Are we headed for a time in the near future where AI can do all the difficult and creative jobs and humans will be relegated to taking out AI’s trash and washing AI’s dishes?
I’ve been putting off writing my thoughts about these questions, which is part of the reason why you haven’t heard from me in a couple of months. But now, with layoffs of programmers continuing at breakneck speed, it’s time to address this.
I just finished writing my latest book, A Developer’s Guide to Integrating AI into Applications (Wiley, 2026). It’s a book about bridging the gap between humans and AI and how to build AI software products that are usable by people. It’s not a book about using AI to do programming (although I wrote that book too), but rather how (and when) to put AI features into computer programs. My inspiration for writing this book was a new printer I got that required you to chat with an AI assistant to configure it. The AI assistant was worse than useless and gave instructions for a different printer at one point. This “helpful assistant” left me wishing for a simple and well-written instruction manual like we used to have in the old days.
In the writing of my latest book, I made use of AI to help me with ideas, outlines, and writing Python code (which I’m getting better at but I’m still not as strong with as I am with JavaScript). I immersed myself in augmenting my writing and critical thinking skills with the speed and (often unhinged) creativity of generative AI. I wrote a good book and some good software in the process while sticking firmly to the principle of Human Centered AI (HCAI) that says AI systems should be developed to empower and augment human capabilities rather than to replace them.
In my ideal and optimistic view of the future, AI tools will be used to help people do more in less time, which will give us all more free time to invent and create things and make the world a better place.
In reality, however, AI companies’ stock prices are going up because companies are betting on a future in which they can get the same amount of work done with far fewer employees. The employees who are left will use AI to do the jobs of everyone who was laid off. This has played out in my own life. I’m now writing courseware for new courses much faster than I was doing it even last year, and I’m also spending more time at my desk than ever before. Every new AI assistant and tool that’s supposed to give me more leisure time ends up with me just getting more done and working longer hours.
So, will AI replace programmers? Yes. Sadly, I think it’s already happening. In my book, I used the analogy of horseshoe makers and fitters (which, I learned, are called farriers). You don’t see a lot of farriers today, but in the 1800s they were everywhere! In the case of AI, it doesn’t need to be used to replace people but companies will do it because they’ll always value profits over people. It’s better to assume that the worst is going to happen and be pleasantly surprised when it doesn’t than to hope that it doesn’t and be surprised when it does.
So, let’s all assume that there will be far fewer professional programmers (or whatever your profession is, frankly) in the near future. What do you need to do to prepare to be relevant when that happens? A good start is to learn about AI and how to use it — not to replace you, but to make you better at what you do. The people who are best at wrangling this new productivity machine will be more resilient than those who keep doing things the same way they’ve always done.
Although I’m worried about the near-term impact to my teaching and writing career that there being fewer professional programmers represents, I believe that my skills as a writer and teacher are more important now than ever before.
If I’m wrong, my current backup plan is to open a bagel shop.
